A complete business cycle has two phases, the recession phase (from peak ... in each financial variable during the first four quarters of an upturn (see Chart 2). Credit crunches and house price busts ...
Lopez-Salido, David, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21879, January 2016.
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